Social Science Space

Lingering questions about the misfire in 2020, in which voter support for then-President Donald Trump was understated in final pre-election polls, suggest that troubles in accurately surveying presidential elections could be deeper and more profound than previously recognized.

The latest American election made it evident that polls faltered, overall. And that misstep promises to resonate through the field of survey research.

W. Joseph Campbell is an authority on the history of presidential polling, and in that story, as well as his recent book, “Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in Presidential Elections,” he details just how polls and pollsters – and those who put their faith in them – have misread public opinion when it comes to elections.

I was wrong, admits political scientist Bryan Cranston, who points out that he wa’s hardly alone among those who professions had them making predictions about the US presidential election. But why were so many wrong?

The American presidential campaign season, official and unofficial, seems essentially endless. But as the US enters the homestretch for 2016, Howard Silver wonders how much all this sound and fury really matters to voters

As various canvasses and opinion polls attempt to predict the outcome of the Scottish independence plebiscite, it’s worth taking a look at how more methodologically sound inputs lead to more accurate forecasts.