Polling

News headline shows 10 point lead

Survey Experts Still Scratching Heads Over Trump-Biden Polling Fails

Lingering questions about the misfire in 2020, in which voter support for then-President Donald Trump was understated in final pre-election polls, suggest that troubles in accurately surveying presidential elections could be deeper and more profound than previously recognized.

4 months ago
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Register screenshot of Iowa poll

We Must Talk About Polling: A Quick Q&A with W. Joseph Campbell

W. Joseph Campbell is an authority on the history of presidential polling, and in that story, as well as his recent book, “Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in Presidential Elections,” he details just how polls and pollsters – and those who put their faith in them – have misread public opinion when it comes to elections.

11 months ago
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kennedy_nixon_debate_1960_opt

How Much Do Campaigns (and Debates) Really Matter?

The American presidential campaign season, official and unofficial, seems essentially endless. But as the US enters the homestretch for 2016, Howard Silver wonders how much all this sound and fury really matters to voters

5 years ago
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IndyRef game

Methods: In Polling, Bigger Is Not Necessarily Better

As various canvasses and opinion polls attempt to predict the outcome of the Scottish independence plebiscite, it’s worth taking a look at how more methodologically sound inputs lead to more accurate forecasts.

7 years ago
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