I was wrong, admits political scientist Bryan Cranston, who points out that he wa’s hardly alone among those who professions had them making predictions about the US presidential election. But why were so many wrong?

The American presidential campaign season, official and unofficial, seems essentially endless. But as the US enters the homestretch for 2016, Howard Silver wonders how much all this sound and fury really matters to voters

As various canvasses and opinion polls attempt to predict the outcome of the Scottish independence plebiscite, it’s worth taking a look at how more methodologically sound inputs lead to more accurate forecasts.