Business and Management INK

How Social Mood Predicts Election Outcomes

November 6, 2012 1459

Traditionally, U.S. presidential elections are said to be predicted by the “big three” variables: economic growth, inflation, and unemployment. But a study published this month in SAGE Open finds there are other, perhaps more significant predictors at work. Authors Robert R. Prechter Jr. and Deepak Goel, both of the Socionomics Institute; Wayne D. Parker of the Emory University School of Medicine; and Matthew Lampert of the Socionomics Institute and the University of Cambridge write in the abstract:

We analyze all U.S. presidential election bids. We find a positive, significant relationship between the incumbent’s vote margin and the prior net percentage change in the stock market. This relationship does not extend to the incumbent’s party when the incumbent does not run for reelection. We find no significant relationships between the incumbent’s vote margin and inflation or unemployment. Gross domestic product (GDP) is a significant predictor of the incumbent’s popular vote margin in simple regression but is rendered insignificant when combined with the stock market in multiple regression. Hypotheses of economic voting fail to account for the findings. The results are consistent with socionomic voting theory, which includes the hypotheses that (a) social mood as reflected by the stock market is a more powerful regulator of reelection outcomes than economic variables such as GDP, inflation, and unemployment; and (b) voters unconsciously credit or blame the leader for their mood.

Read the article, “Social Mood, Stock Market Performance, and U.S. Presidential Elections: A Socionomic Perspective on Voting Results,” published on November 2, 2012 in SAGE Open. To learn more about SAGE’s open access outlet for academic research, and to receive e-alerts about newly published research from the journal, please click here.

Business and Management INK puts the spotlight on research published in our more than 100 management and business journals. We feature an inside view of the research that’s being published in top-tier SAGE journals by the authors themselves.

View all posts by Business & Management INK

Related Articles

“Everything Not Saved Will Be Lost.” –Nintendo “Quit Screen” Message
Business and Management INK
April 8, 2025

“Everything Not Saved Will Be Lost.” –Nintendo “Quit Screen” Message

Read Now
Author Reflections on Intraorganizational Developmental Networks
Business and Management INK
April 2, 2025

Author Reflections on Intraorganizational Developmental Networks

Read Now
Changing the World or Changing Ourselves?
Business and Management INK
March 12, 2025

Changing the World or Changing Ourselves?

Read Now
Generative AI Literacy: A Proposed Way Forward
Business and Management INK
March 11, 2025

Generative AI Literacy: A Proposed Way Forward

Read Now
Exploring the Psychosocial Correlation of Skin Lightening Products

Exploring the Psychosocial Correlation of Skin Lightening Products

In this article, co-authors Hanan Afzal, Sameer Deshpande, and Joan Carlini reflect on the history and inspiration behind their new research article, “Glowing Beyond Shades: […]

Read Now
Exploring the Impact of COVID-19 on the European Union Emission Trading Scheme

Exploring the Impact of COVID-19 on the European Union Emission Trading Scheme

In this article, co-authors Abhinava Tripathi, Charu Vadhava, and Ravi Raushan Jha reflect on the inspiration behind their research article, “Pricing efficiency of European carbon […]

Read Now
Navigating CSR Communication in an Age of Polarization

Navigating CSR Communication in an Age of Polarization

In this article, authors Dennis Schoeneborn, Urša Golob, Hannah Trittin-Ulbrich, Matthias Wenzel, and Amy O’Connor reflect on the inspiration behind their research article, “CSR Communication and […]

Read Now
0 0 votes
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
guest

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

0 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments