Social Science Space

Lingering questions about the misfire in 2020, in which voter support for then-President Donald Trump was understated in final pre-election polls, suggest that troubles in accurately surveying presidential elections could be deeper and more profound than previously recognized.

As various canvasses and opinion polls attempt to predict the outcome of the Scottish independence plebiscite, it’s worth taking a look at how more methodologically sound inputs lead to more accurate forecasts.